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000 FXUS65 KBOU 122152 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 250 PM MST FRI MAR 12 2010 .SHORT TERM...STILL DEALING WITH SOME GUSTY NW WINDS OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE RELAXING AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO TNT BEFORE SLIDING EAST OF THE STATE BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FLOW ALOFT TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SPLIT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH MOVING SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THEN INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THE LOW SO FAR SOUTH...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BE OUT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...WEAK TO MODERATE UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOST LIKELY CYCLONE AS MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS SLIDES INTO THE STATE. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH LIMITING TO PATCHY AS THE UPLIFT AND INCREASING UPPER CLOUDS MAY PREVENT ANYTHING TOO THICK. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE SURFACE FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS. A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND EASTERLY OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PRODUCE SNOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW...AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY BUT NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE ALL RAIN OR A MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE...YET MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ONLY SHOWING UP TO 150 J/KG. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE PRECIP SHOULD SWITCH TO LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE PLAINS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AS THE MAIN LOW SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH. MONDAY AFTERNOON RIDGING WILL CREEP EAST BACK OVER COLORADO AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN. THE RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH THE GFS HAS BEEN ADVERTISING RUN TO RUN. HOWEVER THE ECMWF HOLDS ON TO ITS SOLUTION OF A QUICK CLIPPER PASSING OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. WILL STAY WITH THE GFS AS THE NAM...CANADIAN AND NOGAPS AGREE WITH ITS NON-CLIPPER SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS FLIRTING WITH 60 DEGREES. PAST THIS PERIOD...MODELS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE MODELS ARE ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN US. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY . && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY. GUSTY N-NE SFC WINDS WILL DECREASE BETWEEN 23-01Z WITH WINDS THEN SLOWLY RETURNING TO A DRAINAGE COMPONENT BETWEEN 03-06Z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE $$ ENTREKIN/KRIEDERMAN